Accuracy Scorecard
Most Visa Bulletin prediction tools give you a forecast, then disclaim that it “may vary significantly” — without ever showing how often they were actually right. We publish a per-category hit rate, updated as each bulletin lands — and we count the misses.
Hit rate across 12,197 backtested one-month projections (all categories, both charts). Accuracy decays sharply with horizon — a one-month call is reliable, a six-month one is a rough guide. We show both rather than advertise only the flattering number. “Median miss” is the typical error; the mean is larger because a few retrogressions miss badly.
How it’s computed
We hold a complete, committed series of 202 consecutive monthly bulletins (October 2009 – July 2026). We replay the exact velocity model the site ships — trailing 24-month median pace — as it would have run in every past month, then compare its projection to what the State Department actually published 1, 3, 6 months later. A projection is a hit if it lands within ±31days of the real cutoff. Months where a category went Current or Unavailable aren’t date predictions, so they are reported separately and never counted in the denominator.
Each cell is graded green ≥70%, amber 50–69%, red <50% — the red ones stay visible.
By category & country
| Category | Chart | 1mo | 3mo | 6mo | Median miss (1mo) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-2 — India | Final Action Dates | 52% | 25% | 13% | 28d |
| EB-2 — China | Final Action Dates | 63% | 32% | 9% | 23d |
| EB-3 — India | Final Action Dates | 76% | 39% | 28% | 12d |
| EB-3 — China | Final Action Dates | 54% | 17% | 5% | 31d |
| EB-2 — India | Dates for Filing | 84% | 61% | 41% | 0d |
| EB-3 — India | Dates for Filing | 84% | 60% | 36% | 0d |
| EB-5 Unreserved — China | Dates for Filing | 91% | 73% | 58% | 0d |
| F2A — Mexico | Final Action Dates | 53% | 34% | 22% | 30d |
| F3 — Mexico | Final Action Dates | 90% | 63% | 39% | 7d |
| F4 — Mexico | Final Action Dates | 92% | 74% | 53% | 7d |
| F4 — Philippines | Final Action Dates | 70% | 37% | 27% | 17d |
Final Action Dates govern green-card approval; Dates for Filing govern when you may submit. Filing dates move more predictably, which is why their scores run higher. Full per-cell data (all 116 categories) is in the build artifact behind this page.
How a live prediction is logged
The table above is a historical backtest. Going forward, each live forecast is also written to an append-only log before the corresponding bulletin is published, then reconciled against the actual cutoff once it appears — the record cannot be edited after the outcome is known. See the methodology for the model itself.
Sources & verification
Compiled and reviewed by the GreenCard Radar editorial team · Data as of July 2026